Canada Election Result 2025. Everybody Loses but not completely

In a healthy and functioning democracy, all I would need to do is research the issues, the party policies, the candidates, cast my vote and go about my life with a minimal level of stress.

As I am not in a healthy and functioning democracy I instead pounded the pavement and campaigned for Vote Palestine and my local Liberal candidate, Adam Van Koverden, who publicly did everything that I could realistically expect of him on the Palestinian cause.

He won. But there's a lot in the election that gives me a lot of stress.

And here I will vent about it.

Overall pretty proportional. Regional disparities and incentives remain toxic

The details are in my simulation of the 2025 election under my proportional CLMP system, but to summarize:

• The results make it seem Alberta is more monolithic than it is
• The NDP should not be punished for being a broadly supported party while the Bloc is rewarded for it.
• The next parliament is going to be unstable as both the Liberals and Conservatives maneuver for a fake majority.

Everybody Lost. Everybody Won. To varying degrees.

• The Green party is down to one seat... but that seat is Elizabeth May.
• The NDP dropped in vote share and seats like a rock, the leader lost and resigned, and they didn't meet the official party threshold... but they hold the balance of power.
• The Bloc also dropped in both vote share and seats... but they have a strong and resilient base.
• The Liberals underperformed in some major areas of the country and failed to win a majority that the polls indicated... but they have a strong minority mandate and pulled off a stunning reversal of fortune from just a few months ago.
• The Conservatives squandered a huge lead, did not even come first when a majority looked foregone for them and their leader lost their seat... but their support has only grown in terms of vote share and seats.

The ill wind of Conservative anger howls still

It is this last outcome that stresses me. Policy wise and rhetoric wise everything that Conservatives railed against has been resolved by Mark Carney.

• He is not Justin Trudeau.
• He ended the consumer carbon tax.
• He went further in terms of economic conservatism and ended Justin Trudeau's capital tax hike policy.

Further Donald Trump did everything he could to cause the other part of Poilievre's strategy, embracing MAGA, to backfire on him. Anti Trump, and anti US sentiment shot up, as did Canadian patriotism and Poilievre's strategy of claiming "Canada is broken" became a self inflicted wound rather than a rallying cry.

One would expect this would result in Conservative support jumping to the Liberal party, but that did not happen at all. It stayed strong and resilient and even grew in strength.

The only things that Carney did not do to appease the Conservative base from what I can see was:

• Eliminate fatigue with the Liberal party. This is obviously not impossible.
• Appease the anger that Poilievre stoked.

Anger at rising cost of living and diminished economic prospects is understandable

Carney has to deliver on reducing the cost of living and increasing economic prosperity and activity. These are valid sources of anger and Justin Trudeau's government was not able to address this at all effectively. Carney seems to recognize this with his talk of 'invest more' and his housing plan and "turning 13 economies into 1", but will these show results in even the medium term?

Anger at minorities is not

But that's not the only thing fueling the Conservatives. Anger at immigrants, at Pro Palestine protestors, at Indians, at Muslims, at the pride community (especially trans people)... all of these cannot be explained solely by the rise in the cost of energy, grocery, and shelter. It's stoked by hateful political and media actors that are only doubling down as they benefit from it.

Appeasing this anger DOES NOT WORK. If the Liberals decide to indulge in Islamophobia and transphobia in order to siphon off Conservative support... it will only legitimize these horrible ideologies and people will be drawn to the Conservatives that sincerely push these policies rather than the insincere way Liberals will try to do so. It's happened over and over in the world recently. The Liberals cannot give in to it.

In the medium term the members of the media, social or otherwise, that spread the hate need to be countered strongly. Liberals need to embrace justice issues like Pride and Palestine loudly and without fear.

In the long term Liberals need to ensure that a political party feeding on anger cannot win a fake majority. That's electoral reform.

Because if Canada continues to devolve into a two party state of affairs, then eventually the Conservatives, no how matter how extreme they become in their anger, will have their turn to have the full majority power that winner take all systems make possible.

And then Canada will have its Brexit and Trump moments. And the Liberals will bear a large share of the blame.